Start here
How we assess biotech catalysts
For each covered clinical trial readout, FDA decision or advisory committee meeting, follow the event from expectation to result: the announcement to watch, the checklist written beforehand, and the assessment after the results.
From the slate to the assessment
- 1 · SLATE
Pick a covered event
An event is one specific announcement, such as one trial’s results or one FDA decision. The same company can have several events. The slate shows the expected date and access.
- 2 · CHECKLIST
Read what we will measure
The pre-event brief includes minimum requirements, target results and any red flags. This checklist is also called the “bar.” It is fixed before results are assessed.
- 3 · ASSESSMENT
Compare facts with the checklist
The assessment, also called the “verdict,” explains which checks the reported results passed. Open the source evidence to inspect the exact numbers and sentences.
Illustrative example · fictional study
A positive headline can still fall below a target.
Quillon Therapeutics and QLN-217 are fictional. This simplified example explains the format; it is not a real covered event or part of our track record.
Before: the checklist
Minimum: QLN-217 beats placebo on the MADRS at week 6 (p < 0.05).
Target: the placebo-adjusted improvement is at least 2.0 points, the difference on the comparator’s label.
After: the reported result
The release reports that the endpoint was met (p = 0.03), with a 1.7-point placebo-adjusted improvement.
Assessment: minimum met; target missed. The internal code for this is THIN.
In real research, the checklist’s criteria need source evidence and each actual result appears beside its exact source sentence. A missing number produces an incomplete assessment, not a guessed result.
This compares research criteria with reported facts. It does not establish market consensus, clinical value or the direction of a stock’s next move.
Coverage and source evidence
Coverage is selective. The slate lists the events we have committed to cover and their expected timing; beside it, the radar lists catalysts our scans have found and not covered yet, each date marked company-guided or registry estimate, and the exclusions give the reasons for what we decided against. None of it is a complete calendar of the sector. A clinical trial readout reports study results; a PDUFA date is an expected FDA decision date; an advisory committee meeting is a separate review event. An expected date can move, and an advisory meeting is not an approval. The FDA explains the role of advisory committees.
Research draws on SEC filings, ClinicalTrials.gov records, company releases and FDA documents. Published assessments pair reported numbers with their source sentences. Missing evidence stays missing: the assessment can remain incomplete or unscored when the required numbers are not disclosed.
Catalyst Intel, a Karia LLC product, publishes the research. A person approves each research email before it is sent. The biotech research track record retains published assessments, and corrections are added as new entries. The publication proof tool lets you check a published checklist against its earlier hash.
What is free, and what is paid?
| What you get | Free website | Subscriber |
|---|---|---|
| The slate: every covered event and its expected date | Included | Included |
| Marquee events: the bar and the verdict, in full and on time | Included | Included |
| Every bar’s SHA-256 hash, before its readout | Included | Included |
| Every other event: the pre-event brief and the verdict | 30 days after it resolves | By email: the brief before the readout, the verdict on the day |
| Source evidence for every number | When the event opens | With each email |
The public delay is 30 days from the latest published assessment, or the scheduled event date if no assessment is published. Withdrawn and expired events open immediately. Each event page shows its current access and public release date.
“Subscriber research” means email access first. It does not mean there is a website login to find. The full checklist and assessment appear on this website after the displayed public release date. Paying readers use the research delivered to their inbox.
The terms, translated
- Event
- One specific company announcement we cover.
- Slate
- The list of events we have chosen to cover.
- Radar
- Catalysts our scans have found that the slate does not cover yet, with where each date comes from.
- Dossier
- The pre-event research brief delivered by email.
- Bar
- The checklist of measurable results, written before the announcement.
- Sealed
- Available to subscribers first; the public website shows the publication proof and opens the research later.
- Verdict
- The result assessment against the original checklist.
- V1 / V2
- Initial assessment / follow-up assessment. The follow-up can include later source material.
- Hash / SHA-256
- A digital fingerprint of the checklist. After the text opens, anyone can check that it matches the fingerprint published earlier. You do not need to calculate it to read the research.
What do the assessment codes mean?
- BEAT
- Above the checklist.
- IN_LINE
- Meets the checklist.
- THIN
- Minimum met; target missed.
- MISS
- Minimum missed or red flag triggered.
- SPIN
- Results use a different comparison.
- PARTIAL
- Waiting for more data.
- NO_CALL
- Not enough data to score.
- INSUFFICIENT_DISCLOSURE
- Claim made without numbers.
An assessment is relative to the original checklist. “Above” also requires an additional strength; missing information can prevent scoring. These labels do not predict investment returns.